HNK Hajduk Split has a significant chance to continue their European season in the UEFA Europa Conference League, according to the latest analytical projections. Data published on Tuesday, August 29, 2026, by the platform Football Meets Data gives the Croatian side nearly a three-quarters probability of surviving the league phase.
What are Hajduk's chances in Europe?
The projections for Hajduk in their return to the European autumn phase after a 16-year wait are optimistic. The club is placed 21st in the probability ranking for the UEFA Europa Conference League. The most important figure is that they are given a 73.8% chance to finish among the top 24 teams, which would secure continuation in the European season after the league phase. For direct passage to the round of 16, awarded to the top eight, the chances stand at 17.5%.
These figures are reported by the sports portal Gol.hr. They show that the prospects for the two Croatian representatives, Hajduk and Dinamo Zagreb, are fairly similar regarding survival from the league phase. Both clubs have almost a three-quarters chance to continue fighting in Europe after the winter break.
How is Hajduk performing in the domestic league?
While preparing for their European adventure, Hajduk finds itself in a solid position in the HNL. After four matches played, the team is in fourth place with 7 points, keeping them just two points behind leaders Dinamo Zagreb. Their record so far is two wins, one draw, and one loss, with a recent run of form reading win, win, loss, draw.
In attack, Hajduk has scored 9 goals while conceding 5, giving them a positive goal difference of +4. This data shows the team is in form and has the capacity to fight on two fronts. The current league standing can be tracked on our standings page.
Who are the main favourites in the Conference League?
The Football Meets Data projections also list the leading candidates for direct passage to the round of 16. At the top of the probability ranking is England's Brighton & Hove Albion with a 61% chance. They are followed by Italy's Atalanta (57%) and France's AS Monaco (51%).
Also in the top ten are Portugal's Sporting Braga (50%), Germany's SC Freiburg (46%), Denmark's FC København (44%) and FC Midtjylland (43%), Serbia's Crvena zvezda (38%), Spain's Getafe (38%), and the Netherlands' FC Twente (37%). This list illustrates the strong competition in the tournament but also confirms that Hajduk enters the fray with realistic prospects.
What's next for Hajduk in the coming days?
Before fully focusing on European challenges, Hajduk has an important domestic task. As early as Friday, August 31, they host NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at Poljud. Lokomotiva is currently in sixth place in the table, promising an interesting match. This game is an opportunity for Hajduk to strengthen their league position before the European clashes.
The schedule of upcoming matches, including European ones, can be found on our fixtures page. The current form and team statistics are also available on the stats page. The return to Europe after a long time brings additional challenges regarding match intensity, but current data shows Hajduk is well-positioned to handle those demands.
