Rijeka lost 0-2 to Danish Midtjylland in their first Europa Conference League play-off match, while Hajduk drew 2-2 against Polish Raków. The results of the first phase significantly reduced the chances of Croatian clubs advancing to the league stage. According to Football Meets Data, Rijeka has only a 10% chance of progressing against Midtjylland, while Hajduk stands at 43%, and Raków is given 5,7%. Models consider team strength, past performances, and match circumstances, but also the results of the first match. Hajduk remained without a win after the fifth minute of stoppage time, significantly affecting statistical projections. After losing the first two matches, Rijeka and Hajduk must show improvement in their revanché matches. The return games will be in Rijeka and Poland for Hajduk, but statisticians expect a tough challenge for Croatian clubs.