HNK Hajduk Split is projected to exit the Conference League after the group stage according to a new statistical analysis. The analytics platform Football Meets Data simulated every match and estimated the Split-based club will finish 25th out of 36 teams, just below the cut-off line for continuing in the competition. This projection was published by Index.hr Sport this week and relates to Hajduk's return to the league phase of European competition after a lengthy absence.
The club currently sits 4th in the HNL with 10 points from five games played. In their last match, Hajduk convincingly defeated NK Osijek 4-0, bringing them within two points of the league leaders. They have scored 11 goals this season, conceded five, and maintain a positive goal difference of six. Their next challenge is against NK Slaven Belupo at Poljud on September 12th.
How was this projection created?
Football Meets Data used a model that simulates each match of the league phase once. "In this projection, each match of the league phase is played only once," the authors explained. The model awards points to the winner based on the most likely outcome, with a 43% threshold for a decisive result to avoid excessive draws. When evenly matched teams face each other, a draw probability of approximately 26% is used. "A draw is almost never the single most probable match outcome," the statisticians added.
According to this model, Hajduk is projected to finish just below that 43% threshold, placing them 25th. This would mean their European season ends after six matches in the league phase, without entering the additional qualification round for places 9th to 24th. Only the top eight clubs proceed directly to the round of 16. Hajduk's complete schedule can be found on our fixtures page.
Opponents in the Conference League group phase
Hajduk will face six different opponents from five countries in their group. The first match on the schedule is a home game against Ajax at Poljud on October 15th. A week later follows an away trip to Switzerland to face Thun. They travel to Gibraltar on November 5th to meet Lincoln Red Imps.
They will host Sint-Truidense on September 26th, also at Poljud. The winter matches include a home game against Nordsjælland on December 10th and a final away match in Denmark against Midtjylland on December 17th. Besides Ajax, Hajduk will face two Danish teams, Belgian Sint-Truidense, Swiss Thun, and Gibraltar's Lincoln Red Imps.
What does this projection mean for Hajduk?
The projection places Hajduk as the only Croatian club mentioned in this report on the edge of qualification for continuing their European adventure. While it is a statistical model, it highlights the challenge of the group Hajduk has been drawn into. The club is returning to the league phase of European competition after a long absence, and this projection indicates a difficult path to advancement.
The club's current form in the HNL shows mixed results – in their last three matches they recorded one win, one draw, and one loss. That's a WDL sequence, with the most recent result being a victory. The team roster and detailed player statistics are available on our squad page. Hajduk will begin their European journey in October, focusing until then on the domestic league and the match against Slaven Belupo.
