A statistical analysis by Football Meets Data predicts a dramatic European path for HNK Hajduk Split in the Conference League. The Split-based club, returning to the European stage after 16 years, will first face Ajax at Poljud.
The model, which uses statistical data to simulate matches, forecasts Hajduk will finish 23rd or 24th in the competition's group stage. This would mean a playoff for the next phase, where a potential opponent could be the 9th or 10th-placed team, such as Dutch side Twente or Serbian giants Red Star Belgrade. In their group, Hajduk will compete against Ajax, Swiss side Thun, Gibraltar's Lincoln Red Imps, Belgian club Sint-Truiden, and Danish teams Nordsjaelland and Midtjylland.
According to data published on September 18th, the biggest favourite to win the Conference League is Brighton with a 37% probability. They are followed by AS Monaco (12%), Freiburg (10%), and Atalanta (8%). Other contenders include Braga (6%), Midtjylland (4%), FC Copenhagen (3%), and Ajax (3%). Hajduk's potential playoff opponents, Twente, Nordsjaelland, Gent, Sint-Truiden, and Red Star Belgrade, each have a 2% chance of lifting the trophy.
Ivan Leko's squad enters this historic European campaign in excellent domestic form. Hajduk currently leads the HNL table with 16 points from seven games, one point clear of Osijek. They have won their last five matches, a run that includes victories over Slaven Belupo, Vardarac, Rudeš, Lokomotiva, and Raków Częstochowa. The top scorer this season is Marko Šego with four goals. The first European clash at Poljud against Ajax is less than a month away, but before that, the team must handle a key away derby against Rijeke.
First reported at Net.hr Sportski
